Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Edited: 19 July, 2024
Subtitle: Having a winner mentality
After an upset against Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea, no one thought Ivory Coast would reach the semi-finals of the 2023 AFCON competition, let alone win the competition. On paper, the players looked like they could give a good fight, but after two losses in the group stage, the end looked near. However, they somehow slayed Senegal in the Round of 16, and Mali in the quarter-finals.
I realised this may be a clear-cut case study on the effect of home advantage. After all, how were they able to take on powerhouses with nothing but increased mental focus and adrenaline?
On the very same day Ivory Coast proceeded to the semi-finals, I watched my nation lose 5 - 2 in a continental qualifying game. At home.
It was a futsal game. Players are as close to the fans as you can get. Our players could hear the encouragement and excitement from the crowd. Our players knew the dimensions of the court. Our players are used to our climate. Yet we still lost.
Statistically, on average, you’re 12% more likely to win at home. This number is of course dependent on squad strength, facilities, referee bias and more, but I haven’t seen anyone obsess over this stat. This 12% impacts a lot of lives - everyone working within the football world, partners (news channels, sports brands) and consumers (betting participants, etc).
Here’s the news flash:
Home. Away. Mentally. Physically. Does a home advantage exist? Probably. But it’s simply not enough.
The best teams dominate. They buy the best players and staff (talent), have the best facilities (incentives, perks, work equipment, software), the greatest managers (leadership teams) and kill off games quickly by leading in the first half (doing work within hours not days).